You are hereOn to bigger and better things
On to bigger and better things
By Dan Fagan
It’s over. It was painful to watch and will have devastating consequences on the future of our state, but at least it’s over. The Palinista takeover of Alaska has, after only two short years, come to an end. It is now abundantly clear that Sarah Palin has no intention of running for a second term as governor and will instead focus on her national ambitions.
Meaning she is now a lame duck. When the legislature told her in clear terms a couple of weeks ago her agenda for this session is dead on arrival, the governor must have realized that she had lost her friends in the democratic party and that the conservatives who previously had supported her out of fear were no longer afraid.
The combination of Palin rejecting federal stimulus money and appointing Wayne Anthony Ross to the Attorney General spot should be the final piece of evidence proving that our governor is done with Alaska.
Palin’s political instincts are sharp, and she had to know full well that rejecting stimulus money would invite a firestorm of criticism. That’s why she sent the mealy-mouthed Sean “Captain Zero” Parnell to backtrack on her behalf. (By the way, if you ever get yourself in a jam and you need someone to defend you, best not to pick someone who mumbles.)
Don’t let the backtracking on the stimulus money fool you into thinking Palin cares about the opinions of Alaskans. She got what she wanted out of the stimulus saga- national headlines proving to the nation’s conservative base that she is indeed one of them.
The Ross pick also was designed to boost her national image. Ross is a former vice president of the powerful fund raising organization, the National Rifle Association. He is still on its national board and holds tremendous clout with many power brokers within the national conservative movement. He will be a big asset for her when she runs for president.
At a Christmas party more than two years ago, just after Palin was elected to office, her then top aide, John Binkley, told me the governor would never pick Ross for AG because he was too controversial. That was back when she cared about the Alaska electorate. Now it’s onto the White House.
While it is dangerous to have a lame duck governor at such a crucial time in our state’s history, it could work to our advantage. The good news is the governor has already told the nation she has begun a forty billion dollar gas pipeline to the Lower 48. It's kind of like when you tell everyone you have a date to the prom, but don't. You better find one, anyone, quick. Palin has to do everything in her power to make this project go. This is why she reversed her policy on Point Thompson and then just last week changed her mind on negotiating with producers on tax rates for the gas flowing down the potential pipeline. It is true AGIA prohibits that, but that’s an Alaska problem, not a national one.
If, or I should say when, the governor abandons AGIA, even the most brainwashed of Alaska Palinbots will realize her gas policy was a disaster. But nationally it will play one way: Palin brokers deal to build much needed gas pipeline.
Kind of ironic, don’t you think? We elected Palin because most believed Frank Murkowski was too easy on the oil industry. Now Palin needs their help to advance her political career. And if there is one thing we know about Sarah Heath Palin, if you can advance her political ambitions, she will be very, very good to you.
Now that Palin is no longer a force in our state, it is time for the business community to come out of hiding. Most, but not all, business leaders have been cowered in the fetal position, hiding in caves, terrified to criticize Palin for her anti-development policies. Business leaders remained silent because during her first two years in office Palin used her popularity to accuse those who oppose her high taxes and anti-free market policies as anti-Alaskan. She also has shown a proclivity to exact revenge from critics. If there is one thing a business cannot afford, it is government as your enemy.
Well, now it’s time for Palin critics to fear no more and fight to return our state to one that is open for business. We have to undo ACES if we want to see the Trans-Alaska pipeline continue for years to come.
Business leaders: it is time for you to grow a pair. Or as Hillary Clinton’s character said in a Saturday Night Live skit, if you can’t, I will lend you mine.
naperville dentist aurora dentist chicago movers buy backlinks backlinks online pharmacy make money online make money internet tips free online tips online tips tips online tip online tips work from home video tips Shopping Tips Car Tips Computer Tips Travel Tips Finance Tips cash gifting cash gifting programs gifting free online psychic chat psychic hotlines psychic powers psychic counsellors psychic acadamy psychic jobs free psychic phone call different types of psychic powers free psychic readings online psychic aura colours psychic ability work at home psychic jobs pet psychics psychic chat rooms psychic predictions psychic chat rooms
It's very important to keep in mind that, bridesmaid dressessimple shapes equal less money.cheap bridesmaid dresses Wedding cakes are works of art, bridesmaid dressand more and more bakers see themselves as artists pushing the limits and making wonderful edible masterpieces. wedding invitationsSo, if you want a cake shape that is hard to ice or decorate, you will have to come out of pocket to pay for it. Round cakes are the cheapest and the easiest to decorate.
OH NO!!! MEGHAN STAPLETON and the lower 48 interest group "TRUTH SQUAD" has returned with a new army: becpt, granitepaw, goodgrief67 and devitor stand up and be recognized.
Let me be the first to welcome you to Alaska....and reality.
I have been watching and listening to news about Redoubt for weeks now- and when ash finally began to fall in Anchorage it began to personally affect half of all Alaskan's, including the real governor's mansion and office.. Of course that ashfall was not the end of the world (I won't go into Sarah's biblical leanings here) but it was alarming to many and coudl have been worse, and may will be worse. Obviously the air traffic ramifications for families, business travelers,and cargo has been and will continue to be huge.. maybe enough for Fed Ex and UPS to finally say enough is enough and bail out on Anchoarge as longer range cargo planes also become available...
My point is-- not one news conference.. not one news story about a direct statement from the governor (and I don't mean her "office", I mean from her!)..
I cannot imagine a governor on any natural disaster prone state not going onto various media to give some personal words of advice, comfort, etc.. I think she is so in a shell of national ambition that she is scared of any publicity unless her staff completely controls it, yet her handlers can't even see the political gain in being right in front of this situation. Who cares if people say she is using it for political gain?! Just show you care about it and are working with other government and industries to try and figure out how to handle it. Doesn't it concern you that the Anchorage International Airport and Cook Inlet gas and oil producers may be shut down repeadtely over the next weeks to months?! Come on, be our governor and not a national politician for a little while.
If anyone is politically motivated it's those involved in the feeding frenzy to destroy Palin. They're the ones who try to twist her common sense decisions to render her ineffective in politics. They're the ones who couldn't care less about the people. She's making wise decisions on the stimulus money and working on AGIA. Her opponents are filing complaints about her coat. Hmmmm, I wonder which side really has the good of Alaska at heart.
Render her ineffective? Are you drinking? She is the most incompetent governor ever, in any state. She is ignorant, which wouldn't be too bad, but she is arrogant to boot. She cheats on her per diem, falsely filing for travel for her kids, misusing her position in Troopergate, and more to come such as Matanuska Maid gate.
You people from the SarahPAC who are posting here probably don't know about Matanuska Maid. But you will, and in this case someone is going to jail.
She is such a poor governor that she has the leadership of the legislature, both democrat and republican, up in arms. There is not a week that goes by without more episodes of the gang that can't shoot straight. Even McCain will not support her for 2012.
Yeah, okay, every thing you just mentioned there is blatantly false. And I'm not from SarahPAC. And the legislature is running around like a bunch of little kids. She practically has to babysit them.
I don't understand the basis for your assertion that the Governor's refusual of a portion of the stimulus package means she's finished with Alaska. Governor Palin made it clear: she is not accepting funds that result in unfunded mandates. It makes no sense to create new programs then leave the state holding the bag in two years when the federal money dries up. It also is deleterious to AK to accept money that will come with federal strings and greater control over the state. She did not reject the stimulus outright -- she accepted capital projects and threw away the chaff. She made a well-reasoned and wise decision. That's what the people of your state hired her to do.
Governor Palin was always a staunch supporter of the Second Amendment -- you know -- that one which says we have the right to keep and bear arms. Her pick of Ross is in accordance with her core beliefs. Governor Palin is herself an NRA life member. Being a conservative and supporting the Second Amendment, I think she made an excellent pick.
Governor Palin has made no announcment regarding running for re-election. It's a bit premature to call her a lame duck. And...if she is positioning herself for national office, what is wrong with that? Seriouly. Most of our presidents have been former governors. A governor is essentially the president of a state. It's an executive job.
Perhaps if so many people were not so parochial and so petty about how she does her job, you wouldn't be writing articles declaring Governor Palin a lame duck. She has the right to run for POTUS and if serving one term, then campaigning for that job is what she ends up doing what's the problem? I know you'd all be howling if she ran for re-election, then started campaigning for POTUS -- like both Clinton and Obama did with their Senatorial jobs -- and most people didn't say "boo."
You people are just looking to attack her for any little thing. I know many of you here don't like that -- I can tell by the links -- I know where I am, but I don't hide who I am. I'm a "Palin-bot" plain and simple. And I'm a conservative. So there you have it
Dan
I realize that you are anti-Palin, but your constant criticism that Governor Palin is grandstanding for political gain are getting tiresome. Governor Palin is doing just what she has always done. She does a good job of being fiscally responsible and she is doing it for political gain. She promotes AGIA and it is for political gain. Whatever she does, is for herself and not for Alaska.
Most fair-minded people see that she is doing exactly what she should for the people of Alaska. We see that you are trying to damge her and your efforts are futile. Her popularity continues to be high (60% favorable). On the other hand, yours is dropping rapidly.
Palin's doing what she's always done... increasing taxes, growing government and carrying out vendettas. That's our girl!
Dan,
You wish Sarah's political career in Alaska is over. You can't stand the fact that she has done a good job as Governor and her approval ratings remain high. In you mind, has she done anything right at all? You know that the reason she has enemies in both parties is because she actually stands up for what she believes which is in short supply in politics these days. If every decision she made was politically motivated, she would have travelled the easy road a long time ago. If you all want to see unethical state administrations, you may want to look at other states, i.e. Illinois, Michigan,Kansas, to just name a few.
http://thealaskastandard.com/?q=node/329
"The high price of oil along with the governor’s gigantic tax increase had cash flowing into the state this past year. The governor wisely stashed billions of it away into the state’s savings account, the Constitutional Budget Reserve."
Fagan also praised the deal she brokered with GVE with respect to the Healy Coal Plant.
"Governor Palin is on the right track thinking big to solving Alaska’s future energy needs. The governor has recently brokered a deal with Golden Valley Electric to revitalize the Healy clean coal plant. Once on-line, this plant will provide lower utilities for customers in the interior and eventually Homer."
He supports her positions on the stimulus, the Road to Nome, the Knik Am Bridge, the Sustina Dam, and presumably the parental consent legislation.
Those dadgum ethics laws make it much easier to collect if you're not a sitting governor, dontcha know?
Ahh Dan...a great piece but you're applying logic to someone who has routinely defied such a thing. I do, however, agree with you that she's not likely to run again. Not only does she need to focus on her national image, but she can't afford to lose re-election for Gov...she would be toast, nationally, if that happened. She would still stand a good chance at re-election if she tried, but it's far, far from a sure thing.
regarding politics:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/statehouse_rock_36_governorships_on_the_chopping_block_in_20102
"ALASKA--Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK): Assuming Palin runs for Governor again instead of challenging U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), as is likely, Palin is close to a shoo-in for a second term, despite her recent troubles in and out of the state. John McCain had been faring poorly in Alaska until Palin was put on the ticket, and then the GOP won the presidential race in the Frontier State with 60%. The controversies that dogged Palin nationally will have relatively little effect on her reelection bid, at least in terms of the outcome. "
http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2009-03-26_10-01-16.php
"Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested...
SOLID R (4)
Palin (AK)
Otter (ID)
Heineman (NE)
SC (Sanford)"
See the polling data from Hays that I have cited below, one poll taken after the stimulus announcement. That there are only eighteen months between now and the election means that Palin is one of the safest governors in the country by all objective analysis. That may not be the case if her re-electiojn was up in 2012.
The same principle applies for Obama nationally. If his re-election was in 2010, he'd win at least 55% in a walk. But his re-election is in 2012....
"But his re-election is in 2012...."
Truth Meter, I like the way you think. Well said!!!
That is, assuming he will run for re-election. LBJ won 1964 by a margin that makes Obama's victory look like a joke (LBJ even won AK) but didn't end up running for re-election in 1968.
Obama would almost be assured of re-election in 2010 but he will go before the voters in 2012 instead.
On January 4th, Obama's approval/disapproval rating was 69/28. Today, it's 58/40. That's quite a drop in less than three months even though nobody has gone negative on him besides talk show hosts. That's not a very good trend for Obama to fall so dramatically during the honeymoon phase. He's not giving himself a big enough cushion in his approval-disapproval ratings to overcome the eventual fall during tough times.
Look at Palin's ratings initially. They jumped up to 80% pretty quickly, which allowed for her to create a cushion for the eventual fall. Obama has not created any such cushion, and has fallen quite significantly, even though conservatives have been nothing but nice to the guy.
The Legislature won't engage with the Governor and she's getting frustrated. Things aren't going so well in Palinland these days, her ship is listing to the far right and they've had to turn on the bilge pumps. Hopefully, the Legislature will ignore this "Control" freak because she's taking herself to the cleaners with her foolishness, no dramatic public intervention necessary. The Legislature has the opportunity to sail this state forward without her buzzing around creating more pools of anger. Monogramed "Palin" Fly swatters are selling well in Juneau these days.
Palin favorables/unfavorables November 2nd, 2008
62/34
http://www.haysresearch.com/OC102308.htm
Palin favorables/unfavorables March 25, 2009
60/35
So in approximately the past six months, Palin's favorables fell by two points while her unfavorables rose by one point. All of this occurred during a time when oil prices fell to $25/barrel. However, oil prices will likely rise for the remainder of the year and early 2010, so dramatically low oil prices will likely not be too much of an obstacle going forward.
"Oil watchers see stage being set for surging prices"
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/03/26/26greenwire-some-see-stage-being-set-for-surging-oil-price-10311.html
I'm someone who likes to draw reasonable inferences from polling data (unsure about the regulars on this blog) but the trends seem to favor Palin strongly should she choose to run for re-election. The general rule of thumb for incumbents is that if you are over 50% favorables, you are likely going to have a relatively easy re-election. Since Palin's run for re-election is only about eighteen months away, if you apply think the trends that I have cited to above will continue for the remainder of Palin's term, then her favorables in November 2010 would be 54/38. Incumbents with a favorable rating of 54% rarely break too much of a sweat for re-election. If her potential re-election was instead in 2012 (as is the case with Barack Obama), then she would probably have more to worry about.
I'm just a data guy trying to teach people how to comprehend polling data.
There is "NO rule of thumb or trends" when Palin is involved.. If she runs, she won't have Randy or Frank(maybe the Legislature though) to kick under the bus in order to get elected. Her clear and transparent platform took a hike a long time ago and she's going to have to defend her ethical lapses. The public exposure time will also "sour" her national image - how many Lincoln Dinner speeches would it take to get her elected? When she became a VP candidate it gave a lot of Alaskans reason to drop their jaws in wonder as to how we ever elected someone so uneducated in the english language in the first place. Nope, she isn't going to be able to wink herself into office this time.
....on a poll of only 400 Alaska voters who have land-line telephones, out of a total voting population of over 500,000 Alaskans.
However, if we are to accept your 60% "favorable" rate for Sarah Palin, why didn't you mention that Lisa Murkowski was also in that same Hays Research poll, and HER "favorable" rate was 71.6%?
Exactly the same question was asked about each -- "Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin/Lisa Murkowski? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?
Sarah Palin's "unfavorable" may have been "only" 35%, but Lisa Murkowski's was 20.9%.
No wonder Sarah Palin is ready to move on.
and any inaccuracy is usually an under-estimation of Palin's favorable numbers, as evidenced by the exit poll conducted of Alaskan voters on November 4th, 2008. Go read my response to Heath below. The exit poll showed her approval/disapproval at 73/26, when Kos/Research 2K, Ivan Moore, Hays, and Rasmussen showed her in the mid-to-low 60s in pre-election polls.
My theory is the cell phone effect applies to Palin since her one of her strongest support age demos is among 18-29 voters. Dittman's two Palin polls this year support this argument. One of McCain's strongest age demos was 18-29 as well, which was an anomaly compared to his results among the 18-29 group nationwide.
Data is my friend.
This discussion pertained to Palin running for re-election as governor, not challenging Murkowski for the Senate.
Remember too that Democrats cannot vote in a Republican primary if Palin were to challenge Murkowski. I don't have the Hays Research crosstabs but my suspicion is that Murkowski's high favorables are due to high favorables among democrats, who could not vote in a hypothetical Palin-Murkowski matchup.
Assuming that Palin had a 20% favorable rating among democrats and Murkowski had a 65% favorable rating among democrats (Dittman had similar numbers among democrats for the two Alaskan women in his Palin-Murkowski poll), then the two would essentially be even among the people who can actually vote in a republican primary: republicans and independents.
Even with the higher overall favorables, Palin's very favorables are higher than Murkowski's very favorables. You can draw an inference that the "very favorable" numbers that while Republicans and indies like both women about the same, they like Palin a little more and that may be enough to give her a narrow win. Also, assuming that 50% of the electorate in the republican primary consists of white born-again evangelical Christians and if Palin were to win this demographic 2-to-1 against Murkowski (which is possible given Murkowski's support of using federal funding to pay for abortions), Palin would only need to win 36% of the non-white evangelical born-again Christian vote in the republican primary to defeat Murkowski.
Though Palin's very unfavorables are higher than Murkowski's, if those very unfavorables are coming mainly from democrats, then wouldn't matter in a hypothetical contest since they cannot vote.
I pay little regard to the polls, except for the NFL Pro Bowl. But in politics it really means little.
See Kerry in 2004.
You misunderstand what happened in 2004. The pre-election Bush/Kerry polls were accurate. What was inaccurate were the Bush/Kerry exit polls, polls taken on election night.
Do you understand the distinction? Pre-election polls are almost always accurate and in AK's case, if the polls are inaccurate, it's because the Republican is actually polling better (see this past November).
Just a data guy....
As it turns out...yes the pre-election polls were right and not the exit polls. That was because of the end result. If it had been the other way around and Kerry had won, you would be telling me the pre-election polls were wrong and the exit polls were right. I understand...I think. As far as the Republican's polling better, uhm....
"A rose by any other name, is still a rose" and in this case, if it smells like a poll, looks like a poll it probably is a poll. Either way, I pay it no mind.
For instance, because of the increasing number of people who exclusively use a cell phone, polls are becoming somewhat less reliable. I seem to remember two polls the day before the General Election reflecting that Begich and Berkowitz were both going to dominate on election day. Although Begich did win eventually, it was only after 7 felony convictions AND his win was well within the margin of error. I agree with your general assessment, but let's not forget that her current numbers represent a 25% (or so) drop from her high point 18 months previous.
Also, while I am very familiar with Sabato's work and find him to be an intelligent political analyst, Alaska is very unpredictable and always has been. Who would have thought Sarah Palin would have defeated Frank and John by earning more votes than the two of them combined? Defeating either of them was unsurprising, but by that margin--very.
Polls are simply a snapshot in time and to use them as a predictive tool, especially 18 months out requires the basic assumption "all things being equal"/things remaining reasonably static.
If the Alaska polls are wrong, it usually means that they are underpolled the Republican candidate.
Look at the McCain-Obama Alaska exit poll. No poll leading up to the election in the month of October showed her favorables above 70%. Most had her in the mid to low 60s (Moore had haer 64%, Rasmussen at 61%, and Hays at 62%). However, the exit poll showed that the percentage of people who voted who approved of Palin's performance was 73%.
By the way, the closest pollster in the Obama/McCain Alaska race was DailyKos, which had Palin at 65% favorables.
That some pollsters don't poll people with only cellular phone access may actually hurt Palin in AK. It's pretty counterintuitive but if you look at Dittman's crosstabs for his Murkowski-Palin poll and his poll of Anchorage voters asking "whether they would vote to re-elect Palin," one of her strongest age demographics was the 18-29 crowd. If you go by Dittman's analysis, Palin is more popular among the youth in Alaska than the 65+ crowd, which is a reversal of how it usually is for typical Republicans. So people who support Palin may also be missed if the pollster doesn't call cell phone numbers.
Either way, any objective analysis of Palin's re-election chances is that she's in as envious a position as any governor in America if she wants to run again. I don't agree that 18 months is that long a time...now 3.5 years is a long time. Dan's article here suggests that he sees a decent chance of the producers committing to the pipeline in open season...if that were occur, Palin's favorables would likely rise dramatically.
Obviously Palin would win if she ran for a second term. I am not arguing she would lose. I am arguing she is no longer interested in Alaska politics and has her sight set on the national stage.
that she would make a second term. This time she'd have to really run on her record instead of getting elected pointing her fingers at others and preaching about clear and transparent government. She has been caught with her fingers in the pie too often for it to be a coincidence. She's history in Alaska and she knows she can't use her old bag of tricks to get elected ever again in Alaska. Her ability to self-destruct is remarkable to this Alaskan.
Poe and French? Between Poe, French, and Berkowitz? Between Poe and Berkowitz? Between French and Berkowitz (if Poe fails to gain any traction)
My predictions to my four questions:
French, Poe, Berkowitz, and not a clue
Palin favorables/unfavorables pre-stimulus announcement
61/33
http://www.haysresearch.com/OC031309.htm
Palin favorables/unfavorables post-stimulus announcement
60/35
http://www.haysresearch.com/OC032509.htm
The decision didn't seem to have much impact at all on her standing (unless you want to make the dubious argument that another poll is wrong, though if the poll was wrong, the pollster probably underpolled Palin considering that Hays erroneously had McCain/Palin at under 50% in her final pre-election poll). I suppose you can also argue that Palin's favorables would drop further if she exercises her line-item veto authority on some of the appropriations bill sent her way...a dubious assertion, if one is to make it, considering that the media has already reported Palin's stimulus position as a "rejection" of 31% of the stimulus funds even though she never used the word "reject" in her press conference.
I'm just a data guy. Data never lies. Polls can be inaccurate but if they are inaccurate in Alaska, it's usually the Republican who is being unfavorably polled if you go by the polling predictions this past November.
...to a Palinista from Tennesee calling me to tell me that the scary "team of lawyers" (insert "black helicopters"...same thing) are coming up to investigate me and defend Sarah.
I explained to him that if Governor Palin would leave office and not run for another Alaska seat, he and his fellow zombies could have her with no (OK...not much) complaint from me. I'll start focusing on other things I'd prefer...like Rural Alaska, the bycatch issue, Anchorage Assembly issues, mocking PETA, supporting local agriculture--not to mention gardening, gardening, gardening...
I'd be happy to let her be the lower-48's problem.
Until then, I'll learn to turn off my phones at night. I guess the sight of Ann Coulter reviling my ethics complaint last night on Fox was too much for the fan boys to contain.
Linda Kellen Biegel
Who will Sarah pick as her successor, someone who will carry on the Palin legacy?
Lt Governor Parnell wouldn't stand a chance.
Perhaps Wayne Anthony Ross.
As we have seen when Parnell ran against Young, Palin's coat tails are not very long.
And hopefully you are right.
Logic says that she will not run.
I hope you're right.
I hope you're right. However, it could be extremely entertaining watching her defend her record now that she's been exposed to be the fraud she is. The internet is driving her business into the ground and that's driving her crazy too. I wondered for a while lately what was making her tick and I realized - as far as her little brain is concerned, she is the POTUS Princess of Alaska and should be treated accordingly.